Mali Na Naman Si Duterte!

Mali Na Naman Si Duterte!

Akala lang ni Digong wala pero meron! Meron! Meron!

May Magagawa Tayo sa Isyu ng West Philippine Sea

Pinagpipilitan ni Duterte na gyera ang mapapala natin kung ipagpipilitan natin ang claim natin sa West Philippine Sea. Ayon sa kanya, matatalo lamang ang Pilipinas kung ipagtatanggol nya ang ating bansa laban sa militarisasyon ng China sa WPS.

Pero, ayon sa “South China Sea Lawfare: Post-Arbitration Policy Options and Future Prospects” noong April 2017, may tatlong options ang Pilipinas: legal, diplomatic, at security policy.

Usaping Legal

Ayon kay UP Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea Director Jay Batongbacal, hindi naman kailangang gamitin ang AFP para maayos ang sigalot sa WPS.

Dahil nanalo na ang Pilipinas sa arbitral ruling, merong legal na pamamaraan para maisaayos ang gulo.

Ayon kay Batongbacal,  “Therefore, its only policy framework for addressing and eventually resolving the South China Sea disputes must be based on the peaceful modes of dispute settlement enumerated in the Charter of the United Nations and Part XV of UNCLOS.”

Posible raw na i-engage at i-improve ang bilateral ties with China at magkaroon ng isa pang round ng unilateral actions para pag-usapan ang isyu ng WPS. Ito raw ang pinakamabuting paraan para maprotektahan at mapangalagaan ang interest ng Pilipinas sa West Philippine Sea.

Ganun din, posibleng isama sa usapan ang mga other claimants gaya ng Vietnam, Malaysia, at Brunei para magkaroon ng malinaw at iisang posisyon na nakabase sa arbitral decision.

Ayon kay Batongbacal, “In summary, the Award has provided the Philippines with very strong legal leverage that can be used in its bilateral relations and discussions with China and in multilateral relations with other parties both within and beyond the region.”

Usaping Diplomatiko

Ayon kay Policy Analyst Richard Heydarian, sa halip na kumprontahin ang China, mas makakabuting daanin sa diplomasya.

Ayon kay Heydarian, “Instead of leading to further confrontation between the (Philippines) and (China), the conclusion of the arbitral proceedings has actually enhanced their resolve to bridge their differences through diplomacy, leading to a decline in tensions in the South China Sea.”

Posible raw magkaroon ng kasunduan si Duterte at Xi Jinping para parehong makinabang ang dalawang bansa. Ayon kay Heydarian, “Much of this has to do with the Duterte administration’s pragmatic foreign policy outlook and the realization that translating de jure victory into de facto gains requires careful and deliberate diplomacy.”

Ayon naman sa Council on Foreign Relations na nakabase sa US, posibleng magkaroon ng mediation na pangunahan ng isang neutral party sa ASEAN gaya ng Singapore.

Usaping Pangsegurigad

Ayon kay Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research Chairman Rommel Banlaoi, hindi lamang legal ang isyu kundi security rin.

Ayon kay Banlaoi, “Aware of the aforementioned security implications and the current security situation in the post-arbitration South China Sea, the Philippine government is now pursuing several key policy options, including rethinking its security alliance with the US, strengthening its strategic partnerships with Japan and Australia, promoting strategic cooperation with ASEAN members, and engaging China constructively in functional areas and on non-traditional security issues.”

Legal victory ang arbitral award sa Pilipinas, ngunit may mga security implications ang ruling na ito gaya ng pagprotekta sa mga mangingisdang Pilipino sa Scarborough Shoal, pag-secure sa gas and oil projects sa Reed Bank, at pagseseguro ng kaligtasaan ng mga troops na Pilipino sa Kalayaan Island Group.

Ayon sa Council on Foreign Relations, pwedeng magkaroong military-to-military communication para mabawasan ang conflict sa West Philippine Sea.

Sabi ng CFR, “Communication mechanisms like military hotlines to manage maritime emergencies, similar to the ones set up by China and Japan, China and Vietnam, and China and ASEAN, could be established among all claimants.”

Kung magkakaroon daw ng conflict, posibleng obligahin ang US na magkaroon ng military action dahil may Mutual Defense Treaty naman ang Pilipinas at US.

Pinapapaniwala ni Digong ang sambayanan na wala na tayong magagawa. Meron. Marami.

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